Ethereum has been grappling with a lackluster performance this year, and recent data from Polymarket, the world's largest decentralized betting platform, indicates that many believe this trend will continue into 2025. A significant 85% of users are wagering that Ethereum will not achieve a new all-time high (ATH) this year, with the total bets amounting to approximately $3.6 million.
Current Polymarket Betting Data (27/09/2024 16:11 UTC): Question: "Ethereum all time high wen?"
Q3 2024:
Volume: $1,947,594
Chance of ATH: Less than 1%
Q4 2024:
Volume: $486,387
Chance of ATH: 16%
No ATH in 2024:
Volume: $1,095,054
Chance: 85%
Polymarket Betting Rules:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 for the first time according to Binance between July 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Factors Contributing to the Bearish Sentiment
One of the main reasons for this pessimistic outlook is the decision by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to delay its ruling on whether Ethereum spot ETFs can trade with options. This postponement has introduced uncertainty into the market, potentially affecting investor confidence and hindering Ethereum's price growth.
Ethereum's Price Performance in 2024
Start of the Year Price: Around $2,300
Current Price (as of September 27, 2024): Approximately $2,600
Peak Price This Year: Reached $4,000 at one point
All-Time High: $4,800 in November 2021
Despite a momentary surge to $4,000, Ethereum's price has remained relatively stagnant, making it one of the weaker performers in the cryptocurrency market this year.
Additionally, the Ethereum spot ETF that launched on July 23 has thus far underperformed, failing to generate significant momentum or attract substantial investment.
Conclusion
With a substantial majority betting against a new all-time high for Ethereum in 2024, the cryptocurrency faces considerable challenges ahead. Market watchers will be keenly observing regulatory developments and market dynamics that could influence Ethereum's trajectory.
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